EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1750 as Fed Nominee Warsh Testifies Before Senate
Robert J. Williams 
EUR/USD held above 1.1750 during European trading on Monday, April 21, as markets digested testimony from Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to chair the Federal Reserve.
The pair traded at 1.1768 at 14:00 GMT, up 0.12% on the session. Not a dramatic move. But the fact that it didn’t sell off during a high-profile Fed event tells you something about where sentiment sits right now.
Warsh’s Senate Testimony
Warsh appeared before the Senate Banking Committee on Monday for his confirmation hearing. He served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011 and has been a vocal critic of prolonged quantitative easing since leaving the board.
His prepared remarks struck a measured tone. He told senators the Fed should “restore price stability without unnecessary damage to the labor market” and committed to data-dependent policy decisions. Standard confirmation-hearing language. No surprises there.
The interesting part came during questioning. Several senators pressed Warsh on whether he’d resist White House pressure on interest rate decisions. His answer was direct: the Fed’s credibility “depends on its independence.”
Bond markets liked that line. Two-year Treasury yields dipped 3 basis points during the hearing, suggesting traders read Warsh as unlikely to politicize rate policy.
Why EUR/USD Isn’t Moving Much
The 1.1750 level has acted as a floor for three straight sessions. Two forces are holding it there.
On the euro side, hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) rhetoric from last week is still doing work. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned that cutting rates too fast risked reigniting inflation — a comment that pushed back against market expectations for aggressive easing.
On the dollar side, weakness persists. The US Dollar Index (DXY) sits near 99.50, well off the 104+ levels from earlier this year. Slowing US growth data, trade policy uncertainty, and bets that the Fed will cut rates in the second half of 2026 have all dragged on the greenback.
Warsh’s testimony didn’t shift that equation. His careful language actually reinforced the market’s base case: whoever leads the Fed next won’t rush to change course.
Analyst Take
This confirmation hearing was always going to be more theater than policy signal. Nominees don’t telegraph rate decisions before they’re confirmed. Warsh has been around Washington long enough to know that.
The meaningful takeaway was his stance on Fed independence. In a political environment where the White House has openly pushed for lower rates, drawing a clear line matters for dollar sentiment. A Fed perceived as independent can keep rates higher for longer if the data warrants it. That’s theoretically dollar-supportive — but the market is pricing in cuts regardless, looking past the near term toward second-half easing.
EUR/USD staying above 1.1750 through the hearing suggests traders weren’t bracing for a hawkish surprise. The pair is trading on macro fundamentals right now — rate differentials, growth divergence, trade flows. Confirmation hearing soundbites aren’t moving the needle.
Key Levels to Watch
| Level | Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1700 | Support | Session low, April 18 |
| 1.1750 | Support | Floor for three consecutive sessions |
| 1.1800 | Resistance | Psychological round number, tested April 17 |
| 1.1850 | Resistance | April high |
What Comes Next
The Senate Banking Committee is expected to vote on Warsh’s nomination this week. A full Senate confirmation could follow within days if the committee advances him.
For the pair itself, Thursday’s flash PMI data from both the eurozone and the US is the next real catalyst. Manufacturing readings will test whether the growth divergence that’s been pushing EUR/USD higher is still intact. A strong eurozone print or a weak US number could push the pair through 1.1800. The reverse sends it back toward 1.1700.
Traders are also watching for any follow-up commentary from Warsh after the hearing. Prepared testimony is scripted. Off-the-cuff remarks to reporters outside the committee room sometimes aren’t.
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