Robert J. Williams 
The Australian dollar held near 0.7000 during Wednesday’s Asian session and the New Zealand dollar reached a fresh weekly peak. China reported September exports up 36.3% from a year earlier. The US Dollar Index slipped to around 102.15. China’s General Administration of Customs put exports at $447.18 billion, more than 10 percentage points above the 25.5% growth economists polled by Reuters had forecast. Factory-gate inflation came in at 5%, its fastest pace since June 2022.
How far did the Australian and New Zealand dollars move?
AUD/USD traded at 0.7007 during the Asian session and settled at 0.6994, up 0.13% on the day. The pair spent Wednesday consolidating at a two-week peak just under the round number. Resistance sat at the 20-day exponential moving average near 0.7011, with Tuesday’s low at 0.6987 holding as support.
NZD/USD rose 0.13% to 0.5619 and touched a 0.5620-0.5625 band at its session high. The rebound stalled at 0.5630-0.5635, where the 100-period simple moving average on the four-hour chart sits. Below that, 0.5580 marks the lowest level since April 2025.
Both currencies gained 0.13%. Small moves, for a data beat that size.
What did China’s September export data show?
Exports grew at their fastest pace since February. Imports climbed 31% to $313.65 billion, the strongest reading since June, against a 24.5% forecast. The monthly surplus widened to $133.5 billion from $119.1 billion in August, and shipments to the United States rose 39.6%.
| September 2026 | Actual | Reuters poll | August |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports, year on year | +36.3% | +25.5% | +25% |
| Imports, year on year | +31% | +24.5% | about +28% |
| Trade surplus | $133.5bn | — | $119.1bn |
| Producer prices, year on year | +5.0% | +4.5% | +3.8% |
Trade figures in US dollar terms. Sources: General Administration of Customs; National Bureau of Statistics; Reuters poll of economists.
Semiconductors and cars did most of the work. Integrated circuit exports reached $44.95 billion, up 136% from a year earlier, while car exports rose 62% to $20.75 billion.
Why does Chinese trade data move the Australian dollar?
China is the largest buyer of goods from both countries, which ties the two currencies to Chinese industrial activity. Australia sent $189 billion of exports to China in 2024-25, 29% of its total, on Australian government trade figures. Analysis published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute puts China’s share of Australian goods exports at 36%, up from a low near 29% two years ago. New Zealand sold NZ$19.8 billion of goods to China in the year to June 2026, up 4.3%. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade published that figure.
What September’s release does not show is volume. Customs reports the value of what left Chinese ports, not what Chinese factories bought from Australian mines or New Zealand dairy farms to make it.
Producer prices rose 5% while consumer prices stalled
The producer price index rose 5% year on year, up from 3.8% in August and above the 4.5% economists expected. Consumer prices rose 0.9%, short of the 1% forecast, with core inflation at 1%. That leaves a gap of 4.1 percentage points between the two measures.
Energy costs drove the producer figure. The National Bureau of Statistics pointed to coal and imported crude, with Brent holding near $106 a barrel on Wednesday.
How is the US dollar positioned before the CPI report?
The dollar came into Wednesday off an 18-month high, reached after hawkish Federal Reserve minutes last week. New York Fed President John Williams then signalled room for one more increase this year, and the dollar index gave back ground after his remarks. Traders priced roughly a 79% chance that the Fed holds in October.
USD/JPY eased from highs above 158.40. The euro firmed after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde spoke on inflation. There are “no second-round effects yet,” she said, but the ECB “can’t wait until they are in full view.” The People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7249, above the 6.6922 estimate, a weaker yuan fixing than the market looked for.
Equities took the trade numbers well. The Nikkei 225 added 0.6% and the Kospi gained about 2%, while the Topix finished fractionally lower. Gold moved sideways between roughly $4,155 and $4,165 an ounce.
The US September consumer price report is due at 12:30 GMT. Forecasters expect headline inflation at 3.6%, with core prices up 0.22% from August.
Analyst Take
The size of the currency move matters more than its direction. Exports beat consensus by 10.8 percentage points, and the two currencies most exposed to Chinese demand rose 0.13% each. Traders treated Wednesday’s release as a China story rather than a reason to reprice the Australian or New Zealand dollar.
Composition explains some of that restraint. Chips up 136% and cars up 62% point to Chinese manufacturing output, not to the iron ore, coal and dairy that Australia and New Zealand actually sell. A 39.6% jump in shipments to the United States, with tariff pressure building, looks more like orders pulled forward than new demand.
The producer price figure deserves closer reading than the trade headline. Factory-gate inflation at 5% against 0.9% consumer inflation is a margin squeeze, and the statistics bureau attributes it to coal and crude rather than to domestic buying. Cost-push pressure of that kind tends to fade when the energy move fades.
One limit is worth stating plainly. September data cannot separate front-loaded orders from genuine new business, and nothing in the customs release settles the question. October’s figures, published in November, are the first real test.
What comes next for AUD/USD and NZD/USD?
Australia’s September labour force report arrives at 11:30 a.m. Sydney time on Thursday. Consensus sits at 20,000 new jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.6%. August employment rose by 39,500. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate stands at 4.60%, its highest in 15 years. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand reviews its Official Cash Rate, currently 2.75%, on 28 October. Dollar direction through Wednesday afternoon rests on the US inflation print, and our forex news coverage follows each release as it lands.
Frequently asked questions
How much did China’s exports grow in September 2026?
By 36.3% year on year, to $447.18 billion, the fastest pace since February. The Reuters consensus was 25.5%. Imports rose 31% to $313.65 billion.
Why did the Australian dollar rise on the China trade data?
Chinese demand sets the tone for Australia’s export earnings, and China took 29% of Australian exports in 2024-25. AUD/USD touched 0.7007 in Wednesday’s Asian session before settling 0.13% higher at 0.6994, just under the 0.7000 handle.
Where is NZD/USD trading after the China data?
The kiwi added 0.13% against the greenback to finish at 0.5619, after peaking in the 0.5620-0.5625 band. Its next hurdle is 0.5630-0.5635.
What was China’s producer price inflation in September 2026?
Producer prices rose 5% from a year earlier, the fastest since June 2022, against a 4.5% forecast and 3.8% in August. The National Bureau of Statistics linked the increase to coal and imported crude oil costs. Consumer prices rose only 0.9% over the same period.
When is the US CPI report released?
At 12:30 GMT on 14 October 2026. Forecasters expect headline inflation of 3.6% and a 0.22% monthly rise in core prices. Markets price roughly a 79% chance the Federal Reserve holds rates in October.
Sources
- General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China — english.customs.gov.cn
- National Bureau of Statistics of China, Consumer and producer prices, September 2026 — stats.gov.cn
- CNBC, China’s exports and imports surge past expectations in September, 14 October 2026 — cnbc.com
- investingLive, Asia-Pacific market news: dollar softer ahead of US CPI, 14 October 2026 — investinglive.com
- FXStreet, AUD/USD Price Forecast: Extends recovery to near 20-day EMA, 14 October 2026 — fxstreet.com
- Tradingpedia, NZD Holds Near Highs Ahead of U.S. CPI Release, 14 October 2026 — tradingpedia.com
- Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia release calendar — abs.gov.au
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute, China is back as Australia’s dominant export market — aspistrategist.org.au
- New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Weekly Global Economic Report — mfat.govt.nz
Market levels quoted are intraday prices from the 14 October 2026 Asian session and will have moved since publication. This article reports market and economic developments and does not recommend any trade or position.
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