Robert J. Williams 
Seventeen months. That’s how long it has been since the euro last traded this low against the US dollar. EUR/USD touched $1.1161 in Asian trading on Monday, Oct. 5, 2026, and was last down 0.67% at $1.1178, according to Reuters.
The dollar gained against both the euro and sterling in the session. The Dollar Index rose 0.47% to 102.37, Reuters data showed.
investingLive flagged the move in its Asia-Pacific wrap, published at 03:58 GMT. It tied the euro’s slide to French bond-market stress and to reports that Spanish officials may be preparing for an early election. Those are reports, not an announcement.
EUR/USD and Dollar Levels on Oct. 5, 2026
| Market | Level | Move on the day |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | $1.1178 (session low $1.1161) | -0.67% |
| Dollar Index | 102.37 | +0.47% |
| GBP/USD | $1.3206 | -0.24% |
| USD/JPY | 157.92 | Not reported |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 5.262% | Not reported |
Source: Reuters, Asian session, Monday, Oct. 5, 2026.
Why Is the Euro Falling? France First, Then Spain
French government bond futures slipped 0.13% on Monday and sat near record lows, Reuters reported. Investors are selling French debt over the size of the country’s borrowing and the risk of political gridlock before elections in April 2027.
“The French politics trade that many expected would escalate this winter as April 2027 elections neared … is here now,” Brent Donnelly, president of foreign exchange trading at Spectra Markets, said in comments carried by Reuters.
Spain is the newer worry. An early Spanish election would put a second large euro-area economy into a campaign while French bonds are already under pressure. investingLive linked those reports to concern about euro-area fragmentation, which is the market’s word for member governments paying very different rates to borrow in the same currency.
Why Is the Dollar Rising While Fed Hike Bets Fade?
Traders now price a 78% chance that the Federal Reserve holds rates in October, up from 36% a week earlier, according to Reuters. Softer US jobs and inflation data drove the change. A December hike and two more in the first half of 2027 are still priced.
Fewer expected hikes would normally weaken a currency. Not this week. The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.262% on Monday. It reached 5.342% on Thursday, Oct. 1, its highest since early 2002, according to InvestingCube.
“The dollar is the main winner in the current environment as not only is the rise in Treasury yields boosting the appeal of US assets, but the broad selloff in debt globally is fuelling safe-haven flows into the greenback,” Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at Ebury, said in comments carried by Reuters.
How the Slide to a 17-Month Low Built Up
Monday’s low didn’t come out of nowhere. EUR/USD lost nearly 2.5% in September, InvestingCube reported. The pair then broke below 1.1300 on Oct. 1 for the first time since May 2025, trading at $1.1291 in the European session.
Monday’s low of $1.1161 sits 130 pips under that Oct. 1 level. Reuters counts four straight weekly declines for the euro.
Analyst Take
Call this a euro story before a dollar story. The evidence is in the crosses: the euro lost 0.4% against the Swiss franc and 0.34% against sterling on Monday, Reuters data showed. Sterling itself fell only 0.24% against the dollar, roughly a third of the euro’s 0.67% drop. Anyone with EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP charts open can check that.
France deserves more weight than Spain for now. French stress shows up in bond prices that anyone can pull up. The Spanish election is still a report, and a report can be denied by lunchtime.
One caution. None of these figures separates how much of Monday’s move came from France, from Spain or from US yields. Treat any single-cause explanation with suspicion.
What Traders Are Watching Next
The Fed publishes the minutes of its September meeting on Wednesday, Oct. 7. investingLive said traders will read them for how firmly officials stand behind their “one more hike” guidance after the softer data.
On the chart, Monday’s $1.1161 low is the reference point. A break below it would mark a fresh low for the move that began in September.
FAQ
What is the lowest EUR/USD has traded in 2026?
EUR/USD touched $1.1161 in Asian trading on Monday, Oct. 5, 2026, according to Reuters. That’s the lowest level since May 2025.
Why did the euro fall on Oct. 5, 2026?
investingLive linked the drop to French bond-market stress and to reports that Spanish officials may be preparing for an early election. Reuters reported French bond futures near record lows on worries about France’s debt and political gridlock before April 2027 elections. Both stories raise concern that borrowing costs across euro-area governments are pulling apart.
Is the US dollar getting stronger?
Yes, on Monday’s numbers. The Dollar Index rose 0.47% to 102.37 in Asian trading on Oct. 5, 2026, Reuters data showed, and the dollar gained against both the euro and sterling.
When are the Fed minutes released?
Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026. They cover the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.
Sources
- investingLive: Asia-Pacific market news wrap, Oct. 5, 2026
- Reuters via Investing.com: Dollar holds firm as French fiscal woes keep euro on back foot
- InvestingCube: EUR/USD falls to 17-month low below 1.13
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