US NFP Delayed: 70K Jobs Expected Today
Robert J. Williams 
Beatrice Quinn 
The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for January, postponed due to a partial government shutdown, releases today at 13:30 GMT—potentially reshaping Federal Reserve rate expectations and sparking volatility across forex pairs.
Traders are positioning for moderate job growth amid signs of labor market cooling. This high-stakes data drop follows December’s subdued 50K gain, with broader 2025 revisions expected to show significantly slower hiring.
Key Expectations from the Report
- Job Growth: Consensus forecasts 70K new nonfarm payrolls, up slightly from December but reflecting ongoing softening.
- Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.4%, signaling stabilization in a low-hire, low-fire environment.
- Wage Inflation: Average Hourly Earnings projected at 0.3% month-on-month (3.6% year-on-year), down from 3.8%.
- Revisions Insight: Annual benchmark could revise 2025 payrolls down by ~919K, highlighting a cooler pace than prior estimates.
Why the Delay Happened—and What It Means
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shifted the release from February 6 after Congress ended the shutdown via a House package. TD Securities anticipates even softer 45K gains, concentrated in healthcare and construction, with private sector adding 40K.
Fed officials like Governors Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson note the labor market’s balance, supported by prior rate cuts, but warn of rapid shifts. Challenger job cuts exceeded expectations, and JOLTs openings fell to 6.5M (vs. 7.2M consensus), pointing to cooling wage pressures.
Expert Views and Market Reactions
- FXStreet: “Volatility around the USD will ramp up, with insights on Fed’s rate path.”
- Bloomberg survey: ~67K-69K jobs expected, unemployment unchanged.
- CME FedWatch: March rate cut odds at 15%, down from 30% last week—a strong report could lock in restraint.
EUR/USD holds above 1.1900, gold near $5,050, as defensive hedging builds.
Beatrice Quinn adds:
“A sub-70K NFP could surge March cut odds to 40%+, fueling USD selling and yen/gold rallies, but upside surprises risk entrenching hawkish Fed bets—traders should eye 1.1900 EUR/USD support for volatility plays.”
Broader Market Impact
A weaker-than-expected print (e.g., below 70K) could boost dovish bets, weakening USD and lifting safe-havens like yen and gold. Strong data might reinforce no-cuts stance, pressuring AUD/USD and EUR/USD. NFP influences Fed’s dual mandate: high figures signal inflation risks via spending; low ones spur stimulus.
Looking Ahead
Post-NFP, eyes turn to US CPI on February 14 and Fed speakers like Schmid and Bowman. Expect sharp repricing in USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and precious metals.
About Author
