Supreme Court Strikes Trump Tariffs, Markets Reel
Robert J. Williams 
Alexandra Winters 
The U.S. Supreme Court’s 6-3 ruling on February 20 invalidated President Trump’s sweeping tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), sparking immediate market turbulence on February 23. Valued at $370 billion, these duties targeted China, the EU, Canada, and others in sectors like steel and autos. Trump swiftly countered with a 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective for up to 150 days, fueling uncertainty in forex, equities, and commodities.
This legal pivot—detailed in Chief Justice John Roberts’ opinion—rejects IEEPA as a basis for broad tariffs, citing the “major questions” doctrine and nondelegation principles. Dissenting Justice Brett Kavanaugh argued tariffs fit IEEPA’s intent to “regulate importation,” warning of potential billions in refunds to importers.
Dollar Weakens as Safe-Havens Rally
- U.S. Dollar Index: Dropped 0.3-0.4%, retreating from three-week highs amid trade war fears hitting U.S. growth.
- EUR/USD: Climbed above 1.1820, boosted by Germany’s IFO index at 88.6 (beating forecasts).
- GBP/USD: Pushed toward 1.3550 on strong UK retail sales (+4.5% YoY).
- USD/JPY: Fell below 154.65 on yen safe-haven flows.
Gold, Silver Surge; Crypto, Oil Slide
- Gold topped $5,100/oz, nearing $5,170 resistance, driven by dollar weakness and risk-off sentiment. Silver jumped 5.2%, outpacing gold in the precious metals rally.
- Bitcoin shed 2.58% to $65,869, Ethereum 5.53% to $1,862, as crypto markets capitulated amid broader liquidations—erasing post-election gains.
- Oil dipped: WTI to $65.58 (-1.35%), Brent to $70.84 (-1.28%), as tariff growth fears offset U.S.-Iran tensions.
Equities Diverge on Regional Hopes
- Asia Winners : Hang Seng +2.5% (China relief), KOSPI +0.7%, Sensex +0.6%.
- Losers : Nikkei down, ASX 200 -0.6%, DAX -0.5%; U.S. futures: S&P -0.6%.
Trump’s move signals Section 301 probes for permanent tariffs, questioning 19 bilateral deals with Japan, EU, and others.
Alexandra Winters says
“The court’s decision reestablishes congressional oversight on trade, but alternative statutes face litigation”.
Fed Dilemma and Broader Impacts
Q4 2025 GDP revised to 1.4% (from 4.4%), core PCE at 3.0%, trimming 2026 rate cut odds. Refunds could total $130-175B, boosting deficits to 6.6% GDP.
CFOs brace for volatility, with small businesses hit hardest by prior duties.
Markets eye Trump’s February 24 address for tariff clarity. Section 122’s 150-day clock pressures permanent deals; expect forex swings if EU/U.S. talks falter.
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